Will Canada survive this federal election?
Alberta's first move after the election will likely be to hold a referendum calling for a renegotiation of the equalization payments formula. Under the present formula, Alberta is required to make large payments despite their now very difficult economic situation. An inevitably successful referendum result would force Ottawa and the other provinces to the table, but it is likely the talks will fail, increasing resentment in the province. Then Premier Kenny will have the ammunition he needs to call for a referendum on the separation of Alberta from Canada. This may pass with a comfortable majority.